Ira Kalish, chief global economist at Deloitte, indicated in December 2025 that the global economy experienced disruptions due to notable changes in U.S. trade policies. In response, countries outside the U.S. sought trade liberalization and implemented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures aimed at boosting domestic demand. There was also a significant acceleration in global investments in artificial intelligence, particularly in the U.S. and China.
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As 2026 approaches, uncertainty exists that could adversely affect business investment, with some companies already delaying supply chain investments. The disruption in economic relations among countries creates uncertainty regarding currency values and borrowing costs, suggesting a likely modest slowdown in global economic growth for the year.
In the U.S., the economy confronts challenges stemming from trade and immigration policies. Tariffs are expected to increase inflation in 2026, adversely affecting consumer purchasing power. Changes in immigration policy may slow employment growth and create labor shortages in critical sectors. However, extensive investments in AI infrastructure could help sustain economic growth. The rise in technology-related equities has increased wealth, resulting in robust spending from upper-income households, while low- and middle-income households experience heightened financial stress. Continued investment in AI is crucial; a decline in such investments could significantly weaken the U.S. economy.
China's economy is grappling with severe issues due to a declining residential property market, which has led to reduced property investment and a loss of household wealth, causing an increase in consumer savings and a decrease in spending. The Chinese government is implementing fiscal and monetary stimulus to enhance domestic demand but faces declining exports to the U.S. from tariffs and potential trade restrictions elsewhere. On a positive note, China's advancements in high technology and renewable energy may bolster its economy and consumer spending.
In Europe, governments are beginning to increase investment in defense and infrastructure, financed by debt, as a reaction to geopolitical changes. This fiscal stimulus, along with lower policy interest rates, is expected to have a modestly positive effect on economic growth. Nevertheless, Europe continues to encounter challenges, including troubled trade relations with the U.S. and growing competition from China, leading to expectations of moderate growth while maintaining low inflation.